Op-Ed Forecast


U.S. Economic Forecasts

 

Forecasts by Peter Morici — professor emeritus at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award in competition with 41 other top economists. (See his economic analysis.)

 

Forecast

       Prior Observation  

Consensus

Week of March 11
March 11
Business Inventories – December     0.8%          -0.1         0.6
Retail Sales – January     0.3%          -1.2         0
Retail Sales, ex Autos     0.4          -1.8         0.2
Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas     0.7          -1.4         0.5
March 12
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – February    102.5          101.2         102.8
Consumer Price Index – February     0.1%          0.0         0.2
CPI Core     0.2          0.2         0.2
March 13
Durable Goods Orders – January     -0.8%          1.2         -0.8
Producer Price Index – February     0.2%          -0.1         0.2
PPI less food, energy and trade services     0.2          0.2         0.2
Energy
Construction Spending – January     0.6%          -0.6         0.3
March 14
Initial Unemployment Claims     222K          223         225
New Home Sales – January     610K          621         620
Export Prices – February     0.0%          -0.6         0.2
Import Prices     0.3          -0.5         0.3
March 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index     9.0          8.8         10.0
Industrial Production – February     1.1%          -0.6         0.4
Capacity Utilization     79.0          78.2         78.5
Manufacturing Output     0.4          -0.9         0.4
JOLTS – January     7.335M          7.335         7.155
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – March (p)     94.0          93.8         94.8
Week of March 18
March 18
NAHB Index – March     62          62
March 19
Factory Orders – January     -0.2%          0.1
Durable Goods Orders     -0.8          1.2
Nondurable Goods Orders     0.4          -1.0
March 20
FMOC     2.375%          2.375
March 21
Philadelphia Fed Survey     7.6          -4.1
Current Account – Q4     -136.0          -124.8
Leading Indicators – February     0.1%          -0.1
March 22
Existing Home Sales – February    5.100M         4.940
Wholesale Inventories – January
Treasury Budget – February     -$225.0B          8.7




Previous Forecast Dated March 2, 2019

 

Forecast

      Prior Observation  

Consensus

Week of March 4
March 4
Construction Spending – December     0.3%        0.8         0.6
March 5
ISM Services Index     57.5        56.7         57.2
New Home Sales – December     600K        657         591
Treasury Budget – January     $2.0B        -13.5         0.0
March 6
ADP Employment Report – February     170K        213         180
International Trade – December     -$57.9B        -49.3         -57.6
March 7
Initial Jobless Claims     225K        225         225
Productivity – Q(4) –     1.7%        2.2         1.6
Unit Labor Cost     1.8        0.9         1.8
Consumer Credit – January     $17.0B        16.6         17.3
March 8
Nonfarm Payrolls – February     180K        304         178
Private     170        296         175
Manufacturing     15        13         10
Unemployment     3.9%        4.0         3.9
Average Workweek     34.5HR        34.5         34.5
Average Hourly Earnings     0.2%        0.1         0.3
Housing Starts – January     1.178M        1.078         1.170
Building Permits     1.300        1.326         1.280
Week of March 12
March 11
Business Inventories – December     0.8%        -0.1
Retail Sales – January     0.5%        -1.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos     0.9        -1.8
Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas     1.2        -1.4
March 12
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – February     102.5        101.2
Consumer Price Index – February     0.1%        0.0
CPI Core     0.2        0.2
March 13
Durable Goods Orders – January     -0.8%        1.2
Producer Price Index – February     0.2%        -0.1
PPI less food, energy and trade services     0.2        0.2
March 14
Export Prices – February     0.0%        -0.6
Import Prices     0.3        -0.5
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum     -0.2        -0.7
March 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index     9.0        8.8
Industrial Production – February     1.2%        -0.6
Capacity Utilization     79.0        78.2
Manufacturing Output     0.4        -0.9
Construction Spending – January
JOLTS – January     7.335M        7.335

 

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