Op-Ed Forecast


U.S. Economic Forecasts

 

By Peter Morici — professor emeritus at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award in competition with 41 other top economists. (See his economic analysis.)

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
 

Forecast

      Prior Observation  

Consensus

Week of April 15
April 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index     8.0         3.7        6.8
April 16
Industrial Production – March     0.3%         0.0        0.3
Capacity Utilization     79.3         79.1        79.2
Manufacturing     0.3         -0.4
NAHB Index – April     63         62        63
April 17
International Trade – February     -$54B         -51.1        -53.7
Wholesale Inventories – February     0.3%         1.2        0.4
Wholesale Sales
April 18
Initial Unemployment Claims     204         196        206
Philadelphia Fed Survey     10.0         13.7        10.2
Leading Indicators – March     0.3%         0.2        0.3
Retail Sales – March     0.8%         -0.2        0.8
Retail Sales, ex Autos     0.7         -0.4        0.7
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas     0.4         -0.6        0.4
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index     52.4         52.4        52,2
PMI Services Flash Index     56.0         55.3        55.0
Business Inventories – March     0.3%         0.8        0.3
April 19
Housing Starts – March     1.270M         1.163        1.230
Building Permits     1.300         1.291         1.300
Week of April 22
April 22
Existing Home Sales – March     5.250K         5.510
April 23
FHFA Housing Price Index – February     0.3%         0.6
New Home Sales – March     630K         667
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey     10         10
April 25
Durable Goods Orders – March     0.3%         -1.6
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index     10         10
April 26
GDP – Q1 (a)     1.6%         2.2

 

Seattle business consultant Terry Corbell provides high-performance management services and strategies.