Economic Forecasts

 

By Peter Morici — professor emeritus at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award in competition with 41 other top economists. (See his economic analysis.)

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast       Prior Observation Consensus
Week of June 24
June 24
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – May     -0.15        -0.45        -0.18
Dallas Fed General Business Activity     0.0        -5.3        -1.0
June 25
S&P Case/Shiller Index – April
Twenty City M/M     0.7%        0.7        0.5
Twenty City M/M – SA     0.2        0.1        0.2
Twenty City Y/Y     2.6        2.7        2.5
FHFA Home Price Index – April    0.2%        0.1        0.2
New Home Sales – May    673K        673        680
Consumer Confidence     132.0        134.1        132.0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index     5        5        4
June 26
Durable Goods Orders – May     0.2%        -2.1        0.0
International Trade in Goods – May     -$70.1        -72.1        -71.9
Wholesale Inventories – May (a)     0.4%        0.8        0.4
June 27
Initial Jobless Claims     216K        216        218
GDP – Q1 (f)     3.1%        3.1        3.1
Pending Home Sales Index – May     104.3        104.3        104.9
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index     5        4        4
June 28
Personal Income – May     0.3%        0.5        0.3
Personal Spending     0.4%        0.3        0.4
PCE Price Index     0.1        0.3
Core PCE Price Index     0.1        0.2         0.2
Chicago PMI – June     54.2        54.2        54.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – June (r)     97.9        97.9        97.9
Week of July 1
July 1
PMI Manufacturing Index – June     50.1        50.1
ISM (Mfg) – June     52.8        52.1
Construction Spending – May     0.2%        0.0        0.2
July 2
Auto Sales* – June     17.0        17.3
Car Sales     5.0        5.1
Truck Sales     12.0        12.2
July 3
Initial Unemployment Claims
ADP Employment Report – July     90        27
International Trade – May     -$49.8B        -50.8        -48.8
PMI Services Index     50.7        50.7
ISM Services – June     56.3        56.9        56.0
Factory Orders – May     0.1%        -0.8
Durable Goods Orders     0.2        -2.1
Nondurable Goods Orders     0.1        0.5
July 5
Nonfarm Payrolls – June     140K        75        160
Private     130        90        150
Manufacturing     2        3        2
Unemployment     3.6%        3.6        3.6
Average Workweek     34.4HR        34.4        34.4
Average Hourly Earnings     0.2%        0.2        0.3