By Peter Morici — professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and seven-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. (See his economic analysis.)

 

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 14
October 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
2.5
2.0
0.8
October 16
Retail Sales – September
0.3%
0.4
0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.2
0.0
0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas
0.3
0.1
0.3
Retail Sales, Autos
1.8
Business Inventories – August
0.3%
0.3
0.3
NAHB Index
68
68
68
October 17
Initial Unemployment Claims
215K
210
215
Housing Starts – September
1.289M
1.364
1.300
Building Permits
1.350
1.419
1.335
Philadelphia Fed Survey
8.0
12.0
7.1
Industrial Production – August
0.0%
0.6
-0.2
Capacity Utilization
77.9
77.9
77.7
Manufacturing
-0.1
0.5
-0.3
October 18
Leading Indicators
0.2%
0.0
0.2
Week of October 21
October 22
Existing Home Sales – September
5.430M
5.490
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-5
-9
October 23
FHFA House Price Index – August
0.4%
0.4
October 24
Durable Goods Sales – September
-2.0%
0.2
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index
50.0
51.1
PMI Services Flash Index
52.0
50.9
New Home Sales – September
680K
713
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
-2.0
-2.0